 eEQP： Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (eEQP-Index Page) |
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Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (EQP) |
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Editor： Toru Nakagawa (Emeritus Professor, Osaka Gakuin University） |
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Posted (in English): Feb. 18, 2024 |
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Editor's Note (Toru Nakagawa, Feb. 15, 2024)
This is the English page of 'Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation : Index Page', corresponding to its Japanese page
As you know, Japan has historically been suffered from numerous earthquakes (EQs). The Great Kanto EQ of 1923, the Great Hanshin-Awaji EQ of 1995, and the Great East Japan EQ of 2011 (EQ, tsunami, and Fukushima nuclear power plant accident) are the most recent cases. An even larger EQ (the Nankai Trough EQ) is foreseen on the Pacific Ocean side from central Japan to western Japan with a probability of 70-80% in the next 30 years.
The Seismological Society of Japan (SSJ) was founded as early as in 1880. In recent years, based on the plate tectonics theory, the observation of EQs with dense networks of numerous seismographs and precise observation of crustal movement/strain by satellites allow long/medium-term (probabilistic) forecasting of EQs.
Nevertheless, neither the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji EQ nor the 2011 Great East Japan EQ were predicted at all by the seismological community. As a result, since 2011, SSJ and the Japanese Government have stated: "Short-term/imminent prediction of EQs is not possible with the current state of technology. Therefore, for the time being, we will focus on the observation and understanding of EQs and not on research into short-term/imminent prediction of EQs".
Many people, of course, believe that if we could predict EQs shortly before they occur, people would be able to evacuate, fires could be avoided. and damage from EQs would be much less severe. To realise this wish, the Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ) was established in 2014.
Although I am not an EQ research specialist, I joined EPSJ in 2015 and have been listening to its research presentations for years. However, for about 8 years I felt the EQ prediction research is in the dark. At the conference in Dec. 2022, observation data on underground electric field fluctuations were reported, and I felt that a light had been shed on the short-term/imminent prediction of EQs.
Therefore, since the end of 2022, I have been calling in EPSJ for 'a cooperative research project by several research groups to establish a reliable EQ prediction method'. EPSJ is a small society of about 100 members and has a difficulty in obtaining research funding. But I have decided to make every effort to make it a success.
The theme 'Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation' may look exceptional for you in my website "TRIZ Home Page in Japan". Because of its crucial importance for Japan at present, I have recently decided to set it as one of the important pillars of my website. This is actually the third Index page of this theme in my website:
(I) On The East Japan Earthquake, Tsunami, and Nuclear Power Plants
(II) Introduction to the Research of Short-term (or Just-before) Prediction of Earthquakes by Use of Electromagnetic Phenomena:
(III) TRIZ Forum: On Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (3rd Index Page) (Toru Nakagawa)
(Jun. 6, 2023)
==> Now reformed into the present page: 'Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (eEQP-Index Page)We now have the eEQP folder directly under the 'eTRIZ website', and this eEQP-Index page covers all the subsequent pages relevant to the theme of earthquake prediction.
Index to the former Index pages related to Earthquake Disaster and Prediction
(I) On The East Japan Earthquake, Tsunami, and Nuclear Power Plants
On The East Japan Earthquake, Tsunami, and Nuclear Power Plants: Messages from Overseas Readers and Editor's Reply (massages from over 100 readers of about 30 countries).
Current Situations in Japan after the March 11 Disaster: Information Sources and Notes (TN)
(II) Introduction to the Research of Short-term (or Just-before) Prediction of Earthquakes by Use of Electromagnetic Phenomena (TN)
On the latest system of monitoring power generators and visualization of earthquake prediction (Takumi Yoshioka)
Note (TN, Jun. 4, 2023)
In 2015, I joined the Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ) and started a Forum page (II) on my website to showcase earthquake prediction research. However, the forum has not been active for these 8 years because it was difficult for me as a non-professional to decide what and how to introduce. The issues are now much more demanding in Japan due to the high risk of large earthquakes in the near future. Therefore, I am now starting the Forum on Earthquake Prediction Research
(III) Index Page: Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation
Note: Latest update page at the top
Posted in 2024
Reconfirming the importance of the issue "Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (EQP)", I have decided to set the theme as one of the important pillars of this website "TRIZ Home Page in Japan". In the Japanese pages, I made the new folder jEQP directly under the website home and started the jEQP-index page on Dec. 12, 2023. In the English pages, I have just started the eEQP folder and eEQP-index page today, Feb. 18, 2024.
Posting in English are delayed by 2 months, because I had to work hard to promote the EQP project in the Earthequake Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ). Please allow me to post the EQP articles in this website mostly in Japanese, and only in a simplified way in English.The EQP articles posted in Japanese during last 2 months (Dec 10, Dec. 12, Dec. 25, Jan. 4) are introducd in English translation (simplified) in the corresponding positions of date in this index page..
Excellent research practice, detailed and clear presentation of real observation data, and impressive educational practices. -- However, other more direct observation methods are beginning to shed light on earthquake precursors.
The research aim of this book can be summarized as: "Using the fact that FM broadcast radio waves from out-of-sight are sometimes reflected by the ionosphere and reach us, we want to observe the effects of earthquakes on the ionosphere, find characteristic precursor phenomena, and create a method for short-term/imminent prediction of earthquakes."
After his intensive research from 1995 to 2012, the author concluded: "With the arrival of seismic tremors, broadband electromagnetic noise was often observed . However, no precursor phenomena related to the earthquake, such as ionospheric disturbances, could be detected."
-- I mention three new observation methods which have detected highly-possible EQ precursor phenomena.
Posted in 2023
jEQP: On the Direction of Development of Earthquake Prediction Research (Toru Nakagawa, EPSJ Annual Conference, Dec. 22, 2023) (Dec. 25, 2023)
EPSJ Anual Conference 2023, held on Dec. 22-23, 2023, at Univ. of Electro-Communication (Tokyo) and Online.
The Nakagawa's entire presentation materials in Japanese are posted.
Presentation paper (HTML(Conference Proceedings) (6 pages) );
Presentation slides (HTML
Presentation video (Recorded rehearsal on the previous day, MP4(15 min 56 sec, 48.5 MB).
Even though I am not a specialist in EQ (prediction) research, I presented my thought as a researcher on the importance of EQ prediction research and how it can be advanced. My Abstract is:
Based on the theory of plate tectonics, recent seismology has enabled long-/medium-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes (EQs), using the analysis of seismic motion with networks of seismographs and the analysis of crustal motion measured by geodetic satellites. But it avoids the research of short-term/imminent prediction of EQs, assuming that such prediction is currently impossible. However, most of the public wants to make the short-term/imminent EQ prediction possible to reduce the EQ disaster; and this desire is exactly the goal of the Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ).
The present paper discusses the methodology for realizing the goal. Our basic strategy is to capture the precursor phenomena. We take the approach of experimental science, relying on observations and experiments rather than theories, and we also focus on electromagnetic phenomena rather than mechanical phenomena. In particular, the present paper notes the observation of signals in the underground electric field by Minoru Tsutsui (2022) and therefore proposes to start a research project to verify the signals as EQ precursors by simultaneous observation at multiple sites and to establish a method for short-term/imminent prediction of EQs.
jEQP: Introducing the website of Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ) (Toru Nakagawa) (Dec. 10, 2023 - )
EPSJ Homepage: https://www.eqpsj.jp/index.html
(in Japanese).
Links to its main pages are shown;
major activities and articles will be briefly introduced.EPSJ Annual Conference 2023: December 22-23, 2023, Univ. of Electro-Communications & online (2023.12.11)
jEQP: Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (jEQP-Index Page) (Toru Nakagawa) (Dec. 12, 2023)
Reconfirming the importance of the issue "Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation", I have decided to set this theme as one of the important pillars of this website "TRIZ Home Page in Japan". Accordingly, I have made the new folder jEQP directly under the website home, and have moved the TRIZ Forum: On Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (3rd Index Page) to the new folder as its main index page. Main contents at present are:
(I) On The East Japan Earthquake, Tsunami, and Nuclear Power Plants
(II) Introduction to the Research of Short-term (or Just-before) Prediction of Earthquakes by Use of Electromagnetic Phenomena:
(III) TRIZ Forum: On Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (3rd Index Page) (Toru Nakagawa)
==> Now reformed into the present page: 'Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (eEQP-Index Page)
TRIZ Forum: On Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (3rd Index Page) (Toru Nakagawa) (Jun. 6, 2023)
"Earthquake prediction research" is an exceptional topic for this "TRIZ Home Page in Japan". In 2011, right after the Great East Japan Earthquake (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear power plant accident), I sent e-mail messages to our readers around the world and received sympathetic and encouraging messages from more than 100 people from over 30 countries
Today, I am posting my reviews of two excellent books on earthquake prediction research in Japan.(1) "Earthquake Prediction: Development and Prospects" by Tsuneharu Rikitake (Japan Professional Books Publishing, Jan. 2001, 617 pages), review by Toru Nakagawa (Apr. 20, 2015, posted on Amazon website)
(2) "130 Years of Earthquake Prediction Research in Japan: From the Meiji Era to the Great East Japan Earthquake" by Jiro Tomari (University of Tokyo Press, May 2015, 686 pages), review by Toru Nakagawa (Jun. 2, 2023, posted on Amazon website)
Book Review: Jiro Tomari, "130 Years of Earthquake Prediction Research in Japan: From the Meiji Era to the Great East Japan Earthquake", (University of Tokyo Press, May 2015, 686 pages), review by Toru Nakagawa (Jun. 2, 2023, posted on Amazon website) .
An excellent work for earthquake researchers, disaster prevention and government officials, and all citizens who want to mitigate earthquake disasters.
This book was published 8 years ago, but I did not know about it and just read it for the first time. I am very impressed with the book and I regret that I have not widely surveyed good references. It is an excellent reference that contains a wealth of technical and social information that is much to learn. The book is so rich and dense that we cannot make a short summary. Here I will write what I learned and thought from the book:
The goals of earthquake research are prediction and mitigation, which form two wheels of a cart.
There are three approaches to earthquake prediction:
Prediction based on data from a large number of past seismic events (which has contributed to long/medium-term prediction); prediction based on some precursor phenomena; and prediction based on physical models.
For short/immediate term prediction, the use of "precursor phenomena" is most expected. But a number of objective criteria must be met to be accepted as "precursor phenomena", and none have yet been accepted as true "precursor phenomena". Even a foreshock earthquake cannot be called a "precursor" because it cannot predict whether or not a larger earthquake will soon follow.
Because of the diversity of earthquakes, we should not assume that there is a universal "precursor phenomenon" (applicable to any earthquake).
We must refer to the numerous previous studies and not be too optimistic (to meet the public's expectations).
However, we should still pursue the realization of "earthquake prediction" (as a science and for practical purposes).
Moving away from the conventional mechanical perspective (ground movement, pressure, strain, tremors, etc.), we should look for some electromagnetic precursor phenomena. This is an extremely difficult task that I believe we should pursue.
Posted in 2022 and earlier
Book Review: Tsuneharu Rikitake, "Earthquake Prediction: Development and Prospects" (published: Jan. 2001), Toru Nakagawa (Apr. 20, 2015, posted on Amazon website) .
A complete compilation of earthquake prediction research up to the year 2000. An excellent book, professional yet easy to read for everyone.
EQP First Parent page |
EQP Second Parent page |
EQP Third Parent page |
Nakagawa Presentation (EPSJ 2023) |
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Japanese page |
Last updated on Feb. 18, 2024. Access point: Editor: nakagawa@ogu.ac.jp
