Editor's Note (Toru Nakagawa, Feb. 19, 2025)
Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy: (7) Vision of Our Goal - Official Operation of EQ Prediction Notices/Warnings (Toru Nakagawa) (LinkedIn, Mar. 28, 2025 
) (THPJ, Mar. 30, 2025 
) (THPJ, Apr. 1, 2025 
)
The vision of our Goal of EQ Prediction Research is defined as: "Our goal is to apply our research actually to predict impending EQs (of damaging size) by observing some EQ precursors and to announce appropriate warnings on time before the EQ, officially and publicly toward the people and society for them to take action to reduce the EQ damage and causality."
At the final state (Stage 5), we will officially issue the EQ Prediction announcements in 3 stages. they are:
(A) EQ Prediction Notice will be issued from 1 year to 1 month ahead of the predicted EQ.
(B) EQ Prediction Warning will be issued
from 10 days to half a day ahead of theEQ.
(C) EQ Prediction Emergency Warning will be issued from 2 hours to 10 minutes ahead of the EQ.
All such announcements are made along the procedure of (a) detecting some clear precursor events with the estimation of the region, scale, and timing of EQ (using the technical system), (b) decision of advice by the panel of experts, and
(c) approval of annuncement by the national authority.
The EQ Prediction
research (and researcers) is responsible for establishing reliable methods and a technical system of EQ prediction. I expect that Kamiyama method will be useful for (A) and Tsutsui method for (C), but I can find no method for (B) yet at present. We wish to achieve the goal hopefully in 20 years.
Development of Earthquake Prediction Research - Toward Practical Application (Official Earthquake Prediction Warning) (Toru Nakagawa） (Presented at EPSJ (Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan) 2024 Conference, Dec. 21-22, 2024, Chiba Univ. and online) (THPJ, Dec. 28, 2024) (THPJ, Feb. 19; Mar. 29, 2025)
Japanese page (Dec. 28, 2024): Slides (.html, 11 slides) 
, (.pdf, 4 slides/page) 
; Video (.mp4, 16min56sec) 
; Paper (.pdf, 6 pages) , (.html)
English page (Feb. 19; Mar. 29, 2025): Slides (.html, 11 slides) 
, (.pdf, 4 slides/page) 
; Paper (.html) , (.pdf, 11 pages) (Slides and Paper are posted in English translation, Mar. 29, 2025)
In comparison with my paper presented at ETRIA TFC TRAI2024 (held on Nov. 6-8, 2024), this paper is more compact, clearer, and advanced, reflecting the fact that the audience are specialists in Earthquake Prediction (EPSJ members) and that my thoughts become clearer. Absttact and Concluding Remarks may be useful.
Table of Contents of the paper:
1. Introduction: Purpose of This Paper
2. Vision of the Final Goal -- Public/Social Operation of Earthquake Prediction Notices/Warnings.
3. Requirements for Earthquake Prediction Methods and the Status and Selection of Different Methods
4. Proposing Five Stages of Promoting Earthquake Prediction Research
5.
Three Novel Methods: Their Stage 1 Results and Stage 2 Challenges
6. Proposal for Enhancing the Research System of the EPSJ
7. Concluding Remarks
References
Abstract
Research on Earthquake Prediction has long been in a state of groping in the dark, but we now see a clear ray of light emerging since these 2 years. Tsutsui observed the electric field deep underground to clearly capture its fluctuations immediately before and after an earthquake, and Kamiyama et al. analyzed satellite data on crustal deformation over time to detect anomalous variations several years to several months before an earthquake.
Based on these clues, we discuss here ways to develop Earthquake Prediction Research to the practical application stage. In the practical application stage, public organizations will issue Earthquake Prediction notices (1 year to 1 month in advance), warnings (10 days to 1 day in advance), and emergency warnings (2 hours to 10 minutes in advance) so that people and society can take measures to minimize earthquake damage. To achieve this goal, we will proceed in five stages, i.e., development/realization of Earthquake Prediction methods (Stage 1), verification (Stage 2), large-scale deployment (Stage 3), establishment of technical systems (Stage 4), and public operation (Stage 5), while clarifying the tasks for each stage.
At present, we are just entering Stage 2, where several research groups are working together to validate breakthrough methods. To manage such research projects, we should better establish a General Incorporated Foundation as an offshoot of EPSJ. In Stage 3, a project funded by KAKENHI (the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research) should play the main role, while in Stage 4, a national project will play the main role. Assuming that 5 years are needed for each stage, it will take 20 years to achieve the final stage of public operation. We are determined to move forward with such a great vision and will.
Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy (Toru Nakagawa) (Presented at ETRIA TFC TRAI 2024 Conference, Nov. 6-8, 2024, Cluj-Napoca, Romania) (THPJ, Nov. 26, 2024) (THPJ, Nov. 26,2024; Mar. 30, 2025)
In the English page, documents are shown in the following order: Abstract & Keywords (.html); Slides with annotation (.html), Slides 
(.pdf, 10 slides, 2.26 MB); Video presentation 
(.mp4, 16m14s, 17.6 MB); Paper (.html), Paper (.pdf, 18 pages, 7.1 MB); Paper published 
(.pdf).
In the Japanese page , Slides (in Japanese) are posted (Mar. 30, 2025) 
(pdf)
