eEQP-2024:  eEQP-TRIZSympo-2024
Short-term Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy
Toru Nakagawa (Emeritus Professor, Osaka Gakuin University）       Presented at TRIZ Symposium 2024  (Held by Japan TRIZ Society, on Aug. 29-30, 2024, at Waseda University, Tokyo)
Posted here:  Sept. 5, 2024;    Japanese page: Sept. 5, 2024
Posted:  Sept. 5, 2024

For going to Japanese pages, press buttons. 

Editor's Note (Toru Nakagawa, Sept. 4, 2024)

I presented this  paper a week ago at Japan TRIZ Symposium 2024 held by NPO Japan TRIZ Society.  

I am trying to discuss and propose on "Earthquake Prediction Research" in a general and systematic manner as a scientist (not specialized in seismology) who learned the creative problem-solving metodology, especially TRIZ.  To present this paper at the TRIZ community, I included the phrase "Based on the TRIZ philosophy" in the title and it is the core of uniquness of this paper among many seismological papers and reviews.  I am happy if you could read it about "Research on Earthquake Prediction" regardless of TRIZ.

I am discussing on :   the purpose, the background, the way out of the groping in the dark, the introduction of an epoch-making observation result (by Minoru Tsutsui), considerations and proposals for future development, the construction of a technical system for earthquake prediction, and a vision for official launching of earthquake prediction warnings/emergency alerts.

I post the following documents in this website:

	Japanes page	English page
Abstract	Abstract (.html)	Abstract (.html)
Presentaation slides	Slides (21 slides, .pdf, 1.2 MB)	Slides (21 slides, .pdf, 1.4 MB))
Presntation slides with annotation	Slides + text (.html)
Presentation video	Video (.mp4, 23.5 min., 568 MB)

 

Note (Aug. 31, 2024):  A full paper on this topic has been submitted to the ETRIA TRAI-24 Conference and will be presented there on Nov. 6-8, 2024.  The paper and its presentation video in English will be posted  here after the conference.

Short-term Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy

Toru Nakagawa (Professor Emeritus, Osaka Gakuin University)
Presented at TRIZ Symposium 2024 on Aug. 29, 2024

 

Abstract     (Submitted on May 12, 2024)

Japan has a history of experiencing significant earthquakes (EQs).  In response, the Seismological Society of Japan (SSJ) was established in 1880 and has since developed a comprehensive and extensive EQ observation network, for these one and half centuries.  The understanding of the EQ historical processes, distributions, and mechanisms of EQs of both ocean-trench and inland types has become much clearer.  Research on EQ prediction has also been conducted, and long- and medium-term forecasts of medium- to large-scale EQs (by region) have been issued on a probabilistic basis.
However, the EQs of the Great Hanshin-Awaji EQ Disaster (1995) and the Great East Japan EQ Disaster (2011) were not foreseen at all.  Therefore, SSJ and the government have stated that "short-term/imminent prediction of EQs is absolutely impossible with current technology.  Thus, we will focus not on short-term EQ prediction research but observation and analysis of EQs to gain a basic understanding of EQs."

Nevertheless, the majority of the public still hopes to make the short-term EQ prediction possible to reduce human, material, and social damage caused by EQs.  On such a background, the "Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ)" was established in 2014, and I joined it.  EPSJ has consistently emphasized the electromagnetic approach, but has been unable to show effective methods (for me) until recently.
At the end of 2022, Minoru Tsutsui reported the observation of variation in the underground electric field.  I was impressed by the quality of the observation and believe that the method has the potential to be effective and scalable.  I am proposing that EPSJ initiates a project to develop the method further into a technical system for practical EQ prediction. 

I believe in the significance of this method and have a vision to develop it, based on TRIZ and experimental science.   The main steps are as follows:

(a) The mechanical/geodetic approaches of conventional seismology cannot reveal the timing of EQs, i.e., sudden disruptive events.  Therefore, observation of some kind of precursor phenomena is necessary.
(b) We should consider various possibilities of precursor phenomena and select them through actual measurements (experiments).
(c) Various electromagnetic phenomena generated by the piezoelectric effect in the crust are the keys.  The transition from mechanics to electromagnetics is a significant recommendation from TRIZ.
(d) It is important to consider various forms of electromagnetic phenomena propagation and their associated effects in/out of the crust.
(e) The location of the observation (underground, on the ground, in the air, at satellites, etc.) must be selected, as the phenomena types and noise contamination may differ.
(f) Initially, an observation method should be tried at one site to identify any potential correlation with EQs.
(g) The next step is to use the observation method at multiple sites in parallel to verify the correlation.
(h) Once this is done, we should accumulate the observation data to reveal the types of EQs that exhibit these signs and to create a method for estimating the location, time, and magnitude of the predicted EQ.  Only when this step is performed properly will the observation method become a technology for EQ prediction.
(h) By integrating different observation methods for different types of precursor phenomena, we will create a more usable and reliable technological system of short-term EQ prediction.
(i) Once the system has been recognized by academia and society, we should implement it on a nationwide scale.
(j) Through the operation and verification of the technical system, we will establish an official system of EQ prediction and warning.
(k) In the course of these activities, we will pursue international collaboration to assess the viability of a global implementation.

We believe that Tsutsui's method of continuous observation of the underground electric field has significant potential for the aforementioned development process.  Currently, the method is in the one-site phase (f) and is facing practical issues in developing the second and multi sites at the phase (g) (i.e., obtaining cooperative research groups and research budgets, establishing a project structure, etc.).

 

  Presentation Slides (.pdf)

Short-term Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy
Toru Nakagawa, TRIZ Symposium 2024, Aug. 29, 2024

Presentation Slides (21 slides, .pdf, 1.4MB) 

 

Table of Slide Contents:

Title:   Table of contents (brief)                                                                  ... 1

1.  Introduction: EQ Prediction Research Background                           ... 2, 3

2.  Position of EQP Research                                                                      ... 4
     2A. EQ Research, EQP Research, and Disaster Mitigation Measures 
     2B. Study of EQs (conventional seismology)                                            ... 5
     2C. Current State of EQP Research: A Clear Light in the Dark !!          ... 6

3.  Tsutsui's method (2022.12) :                                                                ... 7
     3A. Observation Instrument
     3B. Observed result (1)  Form 1:  Observed on May 1, 2021.   Drastic (±) fluctuations before and after an EQ      ... 8
     3C. Observed result (2)  Form 2:  Observed on May 6, 2021   Electric field rises and holds for several hours     ... 9

4. Procedures for EQ Prediction Research (1) Preparatory Stage             ... 10
    4A. Overview of the Preparatory Stage
    4B.  Requirements of Precursors for Short-term EQ Prediction                        ... 11
    4C.  Candidates of EQ precursor phenomena and their observation methods     ... 12

5. Procedures for EQ Prediction Research (2) Development Stage (Experiment, Measurement, Analysis)    ... 13
    5A. Overview of the Development Stage
    5B. Development:　（Ｉ）　Single Site Stage:  Research Agenda                            ... 14
    5C. Minoru Tsutsui's Work (2022): Single Site Stage (I) of Development         ... 15
    5D. Development:　（Ⅱ）　Multiple Site Stage:  Research Agenda                      ... 16
    5E. Tsutsui's Method: Challenge for the Multiple Site Stage (Ⅱ)                     ... 17
    5F. Development  (Ⅲ) Stage of establishing an EQ prediction method             ... 18
　　　　  (Case of Tsutsui's method with many sites in a nationwide network)
    5G. Development  (Ⅳ) Stage of Integration into Short-term EQ Prediction System   ... 19

6. Procedures for EQP Research (3) Public Recognition & Usage Stage        ... 20

7.  Concluding Remarks:  Summary and Future                                       ... 21

                          

 

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Last updated on Sept. 5, 2024.     Access point:  Editor: nakagawa@ogu.ac.jp