eEP:  eEQP-News-2024-Index Page  

 

Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation
   eEQP News 2024 Index

Editor: Toru Nakagawa (Emeritus Professor, Osaka Gakuin University)

Posted (in Japanese): Jan. 4, 2024; Latest update: Oct. 7, 2024 
Posted (in English):  Feb. 18, 2024; Latest update: Oct. 7, 2024 

Posted (in English): Feb. 18, 2024; Updated: Jul. 21; Aug. 31; Sept. 5; Oct. 7, 2024

For going to Japanese pages, press buttons. 

Editor's Note (Toru Nakagawa, Feb. 15, 2024)

This is the English page of 'Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (EQP)': eEQP-News-2024 Page, corresponding to its Japanese page .

 

 

EQP 2024 Index Page

Book Review Yoshida

eEQP Index Start

eEQP Forum 2024

LinkedIn-1

LinkedIn-2

LinkedIn-3

LinkedIn-4 LinkedIn-5   EQP: Japan TRIZ Sympo jEQP 2024 Index

EQP Index Page 
(3rd parent page)

EQP First Parent page
East Japan EQ (2011)

EQP Second Parent page
Introduction to EQP research (2015) 

Nakagawa Presentation (EPSJ 2023) 

EQP 2023 Index Page

EQP 2024 Index Page

EQP-index Japanese page

 


 

 

Posted in 2024      (Latest at the top)

 

  Earthquake Prediction (EQP) Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy: (5) Kamiyama Method: Observing Crustal Strains using GNSS Data (Toru Nakagawa) (LinkedIn, Oct. 3, 2024 ) (THPJ, Oct. 7, 2024 ) (THPJ, Oct. 7, 2024 )

 

Makoto Kamiyama (Professor Emeritus, Tohoku Institute of Technology) et al. presented a paper at the EPSJ (Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan) Conference in Dec. 2023.  They use the precise location data of about 1300 reference points throughout Japan, which are measured and updated daily by the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan using the DNSS satellite. Kamiyama et al. use the triangular FEM mesh to derive the maximum shear strain and the area strain (dilatation) coefficients for each triangular area.   Detailed data and their analysis are reported for Hokkaido Iburi East EQ (Sept. 6, 2018, MJ 6.5).  The dilatation coefficients of four triangle areas around the epicenter are plotted daily against the time axis from 2011 to 2023.  The four areas initially shrank slowly at the same rate, then at the EQ two areas suddenly expanded, and after the EQ all the four areas shrank slowly again as before.  Zooming in to the year 2018, anomalous variations of the dilatation coefficients suddenly appear 3 months before the EQ. Two areas vary positively while two others vary negatively; but, regardless of the direction, the variation patterns are very similar.  The variation started to increase 3 months before the EQ, reached its peak, and slowly decreased in an unstable manner, then changed suddenly at the EQ, and disappeared a few days after the EQ.

 


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Similar abnormal pre-EQ variations were observed in all 3 EQs in the paper. Using these precursors, we can estimate the seismic region and magnitude of the coming EQ on the basis of number and extent of areas showing such abnormal variations. As for the timing of the coming EQ, we learn the cases of 3 years to 3 months, but have not yet found any further indicators of the occurance of EQs. 
The Kamiyama Method is now considered the most useful and promising for Short-term EQ Prediction.  We should observe and analyze many more EQs to refine the method.

 

  Short-term Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy (Toru Nakagawa) (Presented at Japan TRIZ Symposium 2024 on Aug. 29, 2024)  (THPJ, Sept.5, 2024 ) (THPJ, Sept. 5, 2024 )

 

I presented this  paper a week ago at Japan TRIZ Symposium 2024 held by NPO Japan TRIZ Society.  
I am trying to discuss and propose on "Earthquake Prediction Research" in a general and systematic manner as a scientist (not specialized in seismology) who learned the creative problem-solving metodology, especially TRIZ.  To present this paper at the TRIZ community, I included the phrase "Based on the TRIZ philosophy" in the title and it is the core of uniquness of this paper among many seismological papers and reviews.  I am happy if you could read it about "Research on Earthquake Prediction" regardless of TRIZ.
I am discussing on :   the purpose, the background, the way out of the groping in the dark, the introduction of an epoch-making observation result (by Minoru Tsutsui), considerations and proposals for future development, the construction of a technical system for earthquake prediction, and a vision for official launching of earthquake prediction warnings/emergency alerts.

 


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The following documents are posted:  In the English page  :  Abstract (.html) , Slides (21 slides, .pdf, 1.4 MB) .
In the Japanes page : Abstract (.html),  Presentaation slides (21 slides, .pdf, 1.2 MB) , Presntation slides with annotation (.html) ; Presentation video (.mp4, 23.5 min., 568 MB)

 

  Earthquake Prediction (EQP) Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy: (4) Tsutsui Method: Observing Underground DC Electric Field (Toru Nakagawa) (LinkedIn, Aug. 13, 2024 ) (THPJ, Aug. 31, 2024 ) (THPJ, Aug. 31, 2024 )

 

In this 4th Part, I am introducing you to the excellent EQ Prediction method reported by Minoru Tsutsui at the EPSJ  Conference in Dec. 2022.  He observed, deep under the ground at a remote site, the DC electric field transmitted directly from the epicenter region without passing through the noisy surface regions.  He set a dipole DC sensor (100 m long) in a 150 m deep borehole and detected the siignal, passing it through a preamplifier, filters, etc., at every second and stored it in a PC.  In the case he observe on May 1, 2021, the signal was quiet at first with small noise, and at 8:50 a drastic variation (with S/N > 30) occured for 46 minutes, then stayed clam.  At 10:27, there was a pulse-like signal, followed by another period of calm.  At 19:00 another drastic variation occured for 68 min. and remained calm.  He learned later at the official EQ records that exactly at 10;27 there was an EQ of M6.8 off Miyagi (about 750 km away).  Accordingly he assigns the first drastic variation as the precursor and the second (most probably) as the "post-cursor" of the M6.8 EQ. 

 


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This is an epoch-making observatin of the EQ precursor with high S/N, drastic fine structure, 1-sec time resolution, and 1.5 hours before an EQ occured in a distant location.  The correlation with the EQ is clear, and the signal contains rich information about the EQ process, which remains mysterious.
I am proposing that we initiate a collaborative research project within EPSJ to support and develop the Tsutsui Method further.  We should advance from the current one-site stage to the multiple-site stage, and then to the nation-wide network stage of EQ prediction (in terms of where, when, and what size) based on the Tsutsui Method.  (We should integrate other EQ prediction methods and gain the understanding and approval of the academic, social, and  governmental communities before officially launching the EQ Prediction Alert system.)

 

  Earthquake Prediction (EQP) Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy: (3) For Selecting "Promising Precursor Phenomena" (Toru Nakagawa) (LinkedIn, Jul. 6, 2024 ) (THPJ, Jul. 15, 2024 ) (THPJ, Jul. 21, 2024 )

 

In current seismology, the physical conditions of various earthquakes (EQs) are not yet known, and thus the timing, process, and associated phenomena of destruction, i.e. the EQ, are not predictable. Therefore, research on short-term EQ prediction should follow the approach of "experimental science," which involves searching for possible precursor phenomena, selecting promising ones, and developing prediction methods by observing and analyzing the phenomena.  We are now proceeding to the selection and development stage.  The figure shows how we select precursor phenomena.

The first category is the mechanical phenomena. They include relative crustal motion, pressure, strain, etc., but they change too slowly to predict when the destruction will suddenly occur .  Changes in the moving rate have been observed prior to EQs through analysis of geodetic satellite data (by Kamiyama et al.).

 


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The second category are electromagnetic phenomena. They are generated as a secondary effect, but can be observed with high sensitivity by various methods; this is a well-known advantage of electromagnetic technology over mechanical ones.   Various experiments have been carried out on the ground to observe electric fields, electromagnetic waves of different frequencies, radio waves reflected in the ionosphere, etc., but none of them was successful due to interference from various natural and artificial noises on the ground and in the sky. 
The data of TEC (total electron content) in the ionosphere observed by GNSS satellite were analyzed by K. Heki to show an increase for a few hours before and after EQs.  This method may be applicable to predict imminent large EQs on a global scale in the future.
M. Tsutsui observed the vertical electric field deep underground to detect drastic variations from a few hours before to several hours after an EQ.  He obtained a continuous record of every second for an EQ  (750 km distant, M6.8) with the S/N ratio over 30 and drastic fine structure.   This method is epoch-making to clearly show the possibility of imminent EQ prediction inthe future. 

 

  Earthquake Prediction (EQP) Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy: (2) Requirements of Precursors for Short-term EQ Prediction (Toru Nakagawa) (LinkedIn, May14, 2024 ) (THPJ, Jul. 15, 2024 ) (THPJ, Jul. 21, 2024 )

 

Fundamental requirements:  X is related with and caused by EQs, occurs short time before for various types of EQs, ...
     ==>  Can examine only after extensive observation and analysis.
Basic Req.:  Observable/measurable clearly with high S/N ratio.
    ==> Need to develop measurement method/instrument (at one site)
Confirmation Req.: Observable at multiple sites similarly, for many EQs, confirming occurrence of EQs just as predicted.
    ==> Data accumulation at multiple sites to confirm correlation with EQs
Practical Req.:  Automatic/stable/continuous measurement, and methods for predicting EQs (where, when, magnitude)
    ==> Reliable technical system and thorough analysis of experimental data
Advanced Req.: System integration and proving causality with EQs.
    ==> Need advanced research in seismology, esp. the EQ process.
Social Req.:  Reliable operation of short-term EQ prediction/alert system.
    ==> Need recognition/approval by academia, society, government, etc.

 


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  Earthquake Prediction (EQP) Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy: (1) Why and How I Decided to Work on this Difficult Topic (Toru Nakagawa) (LinkedIn, Apr. 27, 2024 ) (THPJ, Jul. 15, 2024 ) (THPJ, Jul. 21, 2024 )

 

Great Earthquake (EQ) Disasters in Japan:  e.g., Tokyo (1923), Kobe (1995), East-Japan (2011).
Much advanced seismological study with extensive networks of seismometers.  Long-/mid-term probabilistic foreseeing of possible EQs in all areas of Japan, but the 1995 (Mw 6.9) and 2011 (Mw 9.1) EQs were never predicted.
Seismological Society of Japan (SSJ) and Government decline the research on short-term EQ prediction regarding it impossible at the present stage.
Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ), founded in 2014, pursues EQ precursors with a new approach that emphasizes electromagnetic phenomena.
In Dec. 2022, M. Tsutsui reported an amazing observation of drastic fluctuations of DC electric field under the ground just before and after an EQ (750 km away. M 6.8).  The data are clear with S/N over 30 and time resolution of 1 sec.
We should prove the correlation (and causality) with EQs, and establish a method to estimate where, when and how large the predicted EQ will be.
I propose a research project to observe the signals at multiple locations in parallel.
We will proceed further to build a technical (and social/official) system with several tens of observation sites all over Japan and announce imminent EQ prediction alerts in future.

 


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  EQP Forum: "Earthquake Prediction Research: Readers' Forum (2024)" is now open.  (Toru Nakagawa)  (Jul. 21, 2024)

A new page is open where various opinions, questions, and contributions from readers (of course including those who are involved in earthquake (prediction) research).   Please feel free to send us your comments, questions, contributions, etc. either in English or in Japanese.

 

   Nakagawa's activity plan:  Presentation and introduction on "Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy" (Toru Nakagawa)  (Jul. 21, 2024)

I am making efforts to present my ideas in as many forums as possible, hoping to gain the understanding and cooperation of many people.  Including:

(A) Posting my presentation at EPSJ 2023 here on "TRIZ HP Japan" (Dec. 25, 2023).  Japanese paper, slides, and video.
(B) Posting a series of inroductory articles, on LinkedIn in English (continuing some more) (Apr. 27, May 14, Jul 6, 2024).  Posting the English versions here on "TRIZ HP Japan", and also Japanese translation versions.
(C) Submitted a paper to the ETRIA TFC-TRAI2024 (to be held in Romania, Nov. 6-8, 2024) in English (Jun. 4, 2024).
(D) Submitted a presentation to Japan TRIZ Symposium (to be held in Tokyo, Aug. 29-30), slides in Japanese and in English together (Jul. 11, 2024).

 

  eEQP: Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (EQP): eEQP Index Page Is Now Started (for the 3rd Time) (Toru Nakagawa) (Feb. 18, 2024) (Dec. 12, 2023)

Reconfirming the importance of the issue "Earthquake Prediction Research and Disaster Mitigation (EQP)", I have decided to set the theme as one of the important pillars of this website "TRIZ Home Page in Japan".  In the Japanese pages, I made the new folder jEQP directly under the website home and started the jEQP-index page on Dec. 12, 2023.  In the English pages, I have just started the eEQP folder and eEQP-index page today, Feb. 18, 2024. 
Posting in English are delayed by 2 months, because I had to work hard to promote the EQP project in the Earthequake Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ).  Please allow me to post the EQP articles in this website mostly in Japanese, and only in a simplified way in English.

The EQP articles posted in Japanese during last 2 months (Dec 10, Dec. 12, Dec. 25, Jan. 4) are introducd in English translation (simplified) in the corresponding positions of date in this index page.. 

 

 

  Book Review:  Teruaki Yoshida, "Can We Find Earthquake Precursors? - Multiple Perspective Observation with Radio Waves" (Published: Mar. 2016), Toru Nakagawa, Posted on Amazon site, Jan. 4, 2024) (in "TRIZ Home Page in Japan", Jan. 6, 2024)

Excellent research practice, detailed and clear presentation of real observation data, and impressive educational practices. -- However, other more direct observation methods are beginning to shed light on earthquake precursors.
The research aim of this book can be summarized as: "Using the fact that FM broadcast radio waves from out-of-sight are sometimes reflected by the ionosphere and reach us, we want to observe the effects of earthquakes on the ionosphere, find characteristic precursor phenomena, and create a method for short-term/imminent prediction of earthquakes."
After his intensive research from 1995 to 2012, the author concluded: "With the arrival of seismic tremors, broadband electromagnetic noise was often observed . However, no precursor phenomena related to the earthquake, such as ionospheric disturbances, could be detected." 
-- I mention three new observation methods which have detected highly-possible EQ precursor phenomena.

 

EQP 2024 Index Page

Book Review Yoshida

eEQP Index Start

eEQP Forum 2024

LinkedIn-1

LinkedIn-2

LinkedIn-3

LinkedIn-4 LinkedIn-5   EQP: Japan TRIZ Sympo jEQP 2024 Index

EQP Index Page 
(3rd parent page)

EQP First Parent page
East Japan EQ (2011)

EQP Second Parent page
Introduction to EQP research (2015) 

Nakagawa Presentation (EPSJ 2023) 

EQP 2023 Index Page

EQP 2024 Index Page

EQP-index Japanese page

 

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Last updated on Oct. 14, 2024.     Access point:  Editor: nakagawa@ogu.ac.jp