 eEQP-2024: eEQP-LinkedIn-1-Background |
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Earthquake Prediction (EQP) Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy: |
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Toru Nakagawa (Emeritus Professor, Osaka Gakuin University） |
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Posted: Jul 21, 2024 |
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Editor's Note (Toru Nakagawa, Jul. 11, 2024)
This is the first part of my introductory article on "Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TR Philosophy" posted on LinkedIn, especially in "TRIZ and Innovation" Group. This series is based, but further refined, on my presentation in Japanese at Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan: Academic Conference 2023 (Dec. 22-23, 2023) (see
Abstract is shown in the top figure, and is reproduced here in text.
Great Earthquake (EQ) Disasters in Japan:
e.g., Tokyo (1923), Kobe (1995), East-Japan (2011).Much advanced seismological study with extensive networks of seismometers.
Long-/mid-term probabilistic foreseeing of possible EQs in all areas of Japan,
but the 1995 (Mw 6.9) and 2011 (Mw 9.1) EQs were never predicted.Seismological Society of Japan (SSJ) and Government decline the research
on short-term EQ prediction regarding it impossible at the present stage.Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ), founded in 2014, pursues EQ
precursors with a new approach that emphasizes electromagnetic phenomena.In Dec. 2022, M. Tsutsui reported an amazing observation of drastic fluctuations
of DC electric field under the ground just before and after an EQ (1000 km away.
M 6.8). The data are clear with S/N over 30 and time resolution of 1 sec.We should prove the correlation (and causality) with EQs, and establish a method
to estimate where, when and how large the predicted EQ will be.I propose a research project to observe the signals at multiple locations in parallel.
We will proceed further to build a technical (and social/official) system with several
tens of observation sites all over Japan and announce imminent EQ prediction alerts.
Book Review Yoshida |
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LinkedIn-3 |
LinkedIn-4 |
LinkedIn-5 |
EQP: Japan TRIZ Sympo |
jEQP 2024 Index |
Earthquake Prediction (EQP) Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy:
(1) Why and How I Decided to Work on this Difficult Topic
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Recently, I myself decided to work in the field of earthquake prediction (EQP) research. My background is not in seismology, but in physical chemistry, software engineering, and creative problem solving. I would like to explain why and how I made this decision.
Japan has frequently suffered disasters caused by large earthquakes (EQs). In particular,
the Great Kanto EQ Disaster (1923) destroyed the Tokyo area (especially the downtown area with fire),
the Great Hanshin-Awaji EQ Disaster (1995) attacked the urban structures of Kobe and its surroundings, and
the Great East-Japan EQ Disaster (2011) caused a tsunami along the Pacific coast of eastern Japan and led to the serious accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant.An EQ ("Nankai Trough EQ") is foreseen in the near future (70% probability in the next 30 years), which may cause even greater damage in central and western Japan than in 2011.
We know that we cannot prevent EQs from occurring, but we, the entire people of Japan and the world, want to reduce the disasters/damage caused by EQs as much as possible. This desire is, of course, the basis of my decision.
One month after the 1995 EQ, I visited my hometown near Kobe, where I lived in the 1950s, and was really shocked to see the severe damage.
In the 2011 EQ, I experienced large and long tremors on the 4th floor of a pencil-like building in downtown Tokyo and had to walk 28 km back to my home.
I started a forum page on my website to report about the EQ, the tsunami, and the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and received messages from about 100 TRIZ colleagues abroad, to my thanks. This is the first stage of my web pages concerning EQs
The Seismology Society of Japan (SSJ) was founded in 1880 and developed seismometers and extensive networks of them to observe/analyze EQs and find cruster faults. A series of five-year research projects on EQ prediction started in 1965 with the support of the Japanese government, and revealed the long-/mid-term forecasting of EQs in various regions with probabilistic possibility.
However, the project never foresaw the 1995 EQ (Mw 6.9) nor the 2011 EQ (Mw 9.1). Faced with this fact, SSJ and the government declared that short-term prediction of EQs is impossible with current knowledge/technology, and they moved from short-term prediction research to observation and analysis of EQs for more basic understanding. This pessimistic policy is now widely spread by the authorities in Japan.
However, many ordinary people wish to have the short-term EQ prediction methods in practice to greatly reduce the damage of EQs in the future.
On this background, the Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ) was founded in 2014, and I joined it in January 2015. EPSJ is a small academic society with about 100 members at present, including 20-30 scientists in seismology and other non-specialists (like me) and amateurs.
One of the main approaches of ESPJ is the observation of electromagnetic phenomena as possible precursors of EQs. This approach is in good accordance with the TRIZ principle of evolving from mechanical to electromagnetic methods.I attended the EPSJ conference every year to listen to various presentations and read several books and references. In 2015, I started a forum page on my website to introduce EQ prediction research
At the EPSJ conference in Dec. 2022 and Dec. 2023, I noticed three noble methods for observing EQ precursors. They are:
(a) continuously observing the DC electric field under the ground (M. Tsutsui 2022),
(b) deriving the daily horizontal/vertical changes between different GEONET points all over Japan and noticing the regions with stress accumulation, especially with high or increased speed (M. Kamiyama et al. 2023), and
(c) observing the temporal increase of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere detected at GNSS observation points (K. Heki 2011, 2023).
In particular, Tsutsui observed drastic fluctuations of DC electric field from
2.5(not 1.5)1.5 hours before to 9.5 hours after an EQ (1000750 km away, M 6.8) with S/N over 30 and time resolution of 1 sec.
Seeing his amazing data, I decided to support Tsutsui to establish his method as a reliable/practical method for predicting imminent EQs.
Tsutsui's method has great advantages in accordance with science and TRIZ philosophy.
The electric field generated deep underground in the epicenter region is transmitted in all directions through the cruster directly to the underground observation instrument; the signal never passes on/above the ground, thus no contamination by natural and artificial noise.
The electric field is generated as a secondary effect of the mechanical stress in the
clustercruster, reducing the signal energy by several orders of magnitude but obtaining much higher sensitivity and time resolution in various detection modes;
this is a typical case of the merit of evolving from mechanical to electromagnetic technology.The electric field is detected directly, without further conversion into third/fourth/... effects.
A detector of this method can observe various signals from EQs in any direction, near or far, underground on land or undersea, with high sensitivity for certain magnitude of EQs.
The 1-second time resolution can be useful for analyzing the behavior (and location) of EQs (if the signals are observed at multiple locations).
Future tasks for Tsutsui's method are
to prove the correlation (and further causal relationship) with EQs, and
to establish a method for estimating where (epicenter region), when (at what time), and how large (magnitude) the predicted EQ will occur.
Observing the signals at multiple locations in parallel is essential for these tasks.
The current difficulty with Tsutsui's method is
to drill a 150 m deep hole in a location free of artificial noise to place the 100 m long DC dipole detector.
This means that we need a research team at each site with some research funding and expertise. At present, Professor Emeritus M. Tsutsui is working alone with his limited personal funds.
Therefore, I propose
to start a research project within EPSJ
to collaborate with several research groups at distributed sites
to prove that observing the underground electric field is a good precursor of EQs.Understanding the merits/possibilities of Tsutsui's method must be the primary basis for this project,
but obtaining funds for research activities and personnel is necessary in practice.
This is a really difficult task for us in the current situation in Japan.Once we succeed in the multi-site project, we will be able to go further
to establish a network of several tens of observation sites all over Japan,
to build a technical system to observe/analyze the signals in real-time,
to integrate some other methods for EQ prediction, and
to obtain the academic/social/official consensus
to operate the short-term/imminent EQ prediction alert system in Japan.
We wish such a system to be ready and practically useful before the expected Nankai Trough EQ.
Such a method with technical/social system will be useful also for many other countries suffering from EQ disasters in the world.
Book Review Yoshida |
eEQP Index Start |
LinkedIn-1 |
LinkedIn-2 |
LinkedIn-3 |
LinkedIn-4 |
LinkedIn-5 |
EQP: Japan TRIZ Sympo |
jEQP 2024 Index |
EQP Index Page |
EQP First Parent page |
EQP Second Parent page |
Nakagawa Presentation (EPSJ 2023) |
EQP 2023 Index Page |
Last updated on Jul. 21, 2024. Access point: Editor: nakagawa@ogu.ac.jp
