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Editor's Note (Toru Nakagawa, Mar. 30, 2025)
This page is a repost of my article posted in LinkedIn on Mar. 28, 2025. It reflects the initial section of my ESPJ Conference paper (presented on Dec. 22, 2024, posted in Japanese on Dec. 28, 2024
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The vision of our final goal of EQ Prediction Research (shown in Slide #2) is explained in this LinkedIn article.
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Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy: (7) Vision of Our Goal - Official Operation of EQ Prediction Notices/Warnings
This is the 7th posting of my LinkedIn series on EQ Prediction Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy, reflecting my paper presented at EPSJ Annual Conference in Dec. 2024. Following the TRIZ way of problem-solving, we define the vision of our Goal of EQ Prediction Research here.
Our goal is to apply our research actually to predict impending EQs (of damaging size) by observing some EQ precursors and to announce appropriate warnings on time before the EQ officially and publicly toward the people and society for them to take action to reduce the EQ damage and causality.
The EQ Prediction Research (or such researchers) is responsible for predicting damaging EQs in advance and for reporting the prediction and advising the warning announcement to the national authority. The national authority, on the other hand, is responsible for officially and publicly announcing the warnings toward the people and society and urging/directing them to take appropriate action to reduce the EQ damage and causality.
As we know how huge the EQ damage can be, we expect the EQ prediction warning, if appropriate, to contribute much to reduce a certain part of the damage. But taking action in response to the warnings is a heavy burden for the people and society. Thus, the EQ prediction warnings must be appropriate in all the aspects of the estimation of region, size, and timing of the predicted EQ, as well as the warning announcement of contents, expression, and timing of announcement.
Considering the certainty of possible EQ prediction and the time necessary for the people and society to take action to reduce damage, I propose three stages of official EQ prediction announcement, as shown in the table of the top figure.
The first announcement is (A) EQ Prediction Notice. This should be issued from 1 year to 1 month in advance of the predicted EQ. (Too early as well as too late announcements should be avoided.) The outline of the announcement is shown in the table and may be narrated like this:
"This is the official announcement of an EQ Prediction Notice, issued by the national agency today: The phenomenon P1 has been observed by the EQ prediction system and confirmed (by the national panel of experts) as a precursor event of a possible EQ. An EQ is likely to occur at the estimated location of region X1 (and its vicinity), with the size of magnitude Y1 (±0.5) and the timing T1 (e.g., from 3 months to 1 year ahead from now). Relevant authorities (such as government/local authorities, disaster prevention organizations, and many others) in the area (the region X1 and around, widely) are advised to take precautionary measures (as already set in the EQ disaster prevention guidelines). The public in the relevant area is asked to keep calm and pay attention to possible future EQ prediction warnings. The Warning announcement will be issued from 10 days to half a day in advance of the predicted EQ after observing some clearer precursor event."
The second announcement is (B) EQ Prediction Warning, as shown in the table. It will be issued from 10 days to half a day in advance of the predicted EQ. The Warning announces, based on the observation of the precursor P2, that an EQ (with the revised estimation of place, magnitude, and timing) is very likely to occur shortly (from half a day to 10 days ahead). It directs for the relevant authorities to make preparatory measures for avoiding/reducing damages and urges the public to prepare for evacuation and disaster prevention. It urges to watch for possible EQ Prediction Emergency Warning which will be issued at any time day or night when imminent type of precursor event is observed.
The third announcement is (C) EQ Prediction Emergency Warning. It will be issued in emergence, from 2 hours to 10 minutes in advance of the predicted EQ. Such a short-advance timing comes from the fact that some precursor phenomena appear clearly only very shortly before the EQ, as a sign that they have started to occur and will trigger the start of the disruption at the epicenter fault. Emergency Warning announces the high risk of an EQ occurring shortly. The relevant authorities are directed to take emergency action to reduce the damage in the society, and the people in the relevant area are urged promptly to do damage-reducing action and evacuate to keep safe. This Emergency Warning will be issued at any time day or night.
When the actual occurrence of an EQ is detected with seismometers near the epicenter, the EQ Early Warning is issued, as is currently operated. The announcement of EQ Prediction Emergency Warning will be useful for the relevant authorities and the people to take appropriate action beforehand.
As a prerequisite for all of the above warning announcements, we, the EPSJ, must have established reliable methods, technical systems, and a track record of verification of Earthquake Prediction.
At the present stage, I evaluate that the Kamiyama method is promising for issuing (A) Earthquake Prediction Notices and the Tsutsui method is promising for issuing (C) Earthquake Prediction Emergency Warnings. However, I have not yet found any promising method for (B) Earthquake Prediction Warnings (to be issued 10 days to half a day before an earthquake).
We should also check whether our methods apply to different types (e.g., trench, inland, cluster, etc.) of damaging earthquakes (e.g., M 5.5 or greater). We should also learn about recent advances in seismology, especially in its observation and in the physics of the earthquake process.
These are the points we must solve and develop from the scientific/technical side.
In addition, there are even larger points to discuss, solve, and establish; namely the social side issues and getting the EQ Prediction methods understood.
The issuance of Earthquake Prediction Notices/Warnings/Emergency Warnings has a great impact on society as a whole. Therefore, the issuing scheme must be publicly discussed and institutionalized in the Diet and other bodies. The people who will lead the discussion (and decide on the issuance of individual notices/warnings) will be the national panel of experts (mainly the leaders of the Seismological Society of Japan (SSJ)). Therefore, the earthquake prediction methods must be understood well by the seismological community and academia in general.
Furthermore, the actual effectiveness of Earthquake Prediction depends on the (capability of) social organizations and the public to respond appropriately to the Earthquake Prediction Notices/Warnings. Therefore, the methods and capabilities of Earthquake Prediction need to be understood by the public through the media, disseminated to social organizations, and understood/approved by the national/local governments.
All these social issues need to be discussed later after we consider much more in the scientific/technological issues.
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Last updated on Feb. 19,2025. Access point: Editor: nakagawa@ogu.ac.jp
eEQP-2025: eEQP-LinkedIn-7-Goal is Official EQP Warnings 
