 eEQP-2024: eEQP-LinkedIn-2-ReqPrecursor |
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Earthquake Prediction (EQP) Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy: |
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Toru Nakagawa (Emeritus Professor, Osaka Gakuin University） |
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Posted: Jul 21, 2024 |
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Editor's Note (Toru Nakagawa, Jul. 11, 2024)
This is the second part of my introductory article on "Earthquake Prediction Research" posted on LinkedIn, especially in "TRIZ and Innovation" Group. This series is based, but further refined, on my presentation in Japanese at "Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan: Academic Conference 2023" (Dec. 22-23, 2023) (see ).
Abstract is shown in the top figure, and is reproduced here in text.
Fundamental requirements: X is related with and caused by EQs,
occurs short time before for various types of EQs, ...
==> Can examine only after extensive observation and analysis.
Basic Req.: Observable/measurable clearly with high S/N ratio.
==> Need to develop measurement method/instrument (at one site)
Confirmation Req.: Observable at multiple sites similarly, for many EQs,
confirming occurrence of EQs just as predicted.
==> Data accumulation at multiple sites to confirm correlation with EQs
Practical Req.: Automatic/stable/continuous measurement, and
methods for predicting EQs (where, when, magnitude)
==> Reliable technical system and thorough analysis of experimental data
Advanced Req.: System integration and proving causality with EQs.
==> Need advanced research in seismology, esp. the EQ process.
Social Req.: Reliable operation of short-term EQ prediction/alert system.
==> Need recognition/approval by academia, society, government, etc.
Book Review Yoshida |
eEQP Index Start  |
LinkedIn-1 |
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LinkedIn-5 |
EQP: Japan TRIZ Sympo |
jEQP 2024 Index |
Earthquake Prediction (EQP) Research Based on the TRIZ Philosophy:
(2) Requirements of Precursors for Short-term EQ Prediction
In order to predict earthquakes (EQs) in short or imminent term (e.g. from a few years to a few minutes before an EQ), we certainly need to observe some precursor phenomena.
What types of phenomena can we expect?
How can we observe/measure the phenomena?
How can we prove them being reliable precursors of (some type of) EQs?
How can we estimate where (in which region), when (at what time range), and how large (magnitude) the predicted EQ will plausibly occur?-- These are the questions we have to consider now. Different understandings/decisions will lead us various methods of quite different reliability/usefulness.
There are various types of phenomena, known or expected, as possible precursors of EQs. For example:
anomalous phenomena of animal behavior, peculiar forms of clouds, unusual luminous effects, loud sounds from the ground, etc. observed/reported by ordinary people.
A large number/types of observed data of foreshocks, change in groundwater level, increase of counts of radon in the air, fluctuations/noise/etc. in electromagnetic waves of different frequencies, changes in properties of ionosphere observed by satellites, etc.
For these possible candidates of EQ precursors, we need to clarify how much they are really related with EQs and how useful they will be to predict EQs in short-term future.
To select good candidates of EQ precursors, we should better clarify the criteria for good EQ precursors. We think such criteria in multiple levels:
(0) Fundamental & most advanced level:
The phenomenon X is related to EQs (correlation relationship);
X is caused by EQs (causality);
X occurs in some (desirably many) types of EQs;
phenomenon X occurs as a direct effect (or in a short chain of effects) of EQ;
X occurs just before (at/near the last preparation stage of) EQs.– These are fundamental criteria as an EQ Precursor, but can be shown only after systematic observation (experiments) and thorough advanced research of physical procedures of different types of EQs.
This means that EQ prediction research must follow the approach of "Experimental science", i.e.,
to think of various candidate phenomena,
observe/measure them carefully,
clarify whether they satisfy the fundamental requirements as EQ precursors,
and build a practically useful system of short-term prediction of EQs.
We now think of the criteria at the stage of experiments:
(1) Basic level (at an observation site):
Observable/measurable clearly (objectively, with high sensitivity, possibly in digital);
Free or distinguishable from various natural/artificial noise (by choosing suitable site location, avoiding/reducing noise in the instrument, eliminating/reducing noise with some suitable procedures);
Obtain S/N (signal to noise) ratio as high as possible.--- These are the basic (and important) level of requirements for observing/measuring experiments. Accumulation of observed data at a site will gradually clarify the degree of correlation with EQs.
(2) Requirements for multiple observation sites:
For an EQ, phenomenon X is observed at multiple locations/devices, simultaneously and similarly;
The closer to the epicenter, the stronger it is observed;
For many other EQs, phenomenon X is observed similarly;
For most cases of observing X, an EQ actually occurred after some short time.--- These requirements are important to confirm the phenomenon is not noise but a meaningful signal and to examine/prove the correlation relationships of the phenomenon X with (some types of) EQs.
(3) Further requirements desirable for practical use:
Automatic, stable, and continuous measurement is possible;
the ability to estimate where (at a region), when (time range), and how large (magnitude), etc. of the predicted EQ before it occurs.
--- These requirements need to be satisfied for operating the method as a useful/reliable technology in society. The ability of prior estimation of where, when, and how large the predicted EQ is crucial for alarming the EQ prediction
We should note three points here:
Most of the above requirements depend on the measurement methods/instruments/networks/etc. at present and in future; thus we should develop such measurement methods as much as possible and also be aware of the possible limit of them.
Because of much variation of EQs (e.g., in its geological/crustal structures, components of the crustal layers, depth under the ground, etc.),
we should expect differences in the mechanisms/processes of EQs and hence different possible phenomena before/during/after the EQs;
therefore we need to be prepared that
a phenomenon is generated by some (not all) types of EQs and
some phenomena by a type of EQs and that
even at a specific region different types of EQs occurred in history.We should develop multiple EQ prediction methods to observe different types of EQs and to predict EQs at different timing, such as months before, weeks before, days before, hours before, and minutes before an EQ.
Considering all these factors in the criteria mentioned above,
we should search/select/develop (multiple) EQ prediction methods
that are expected to be most feasible/versatile/reliable /informative/useful
to predict EQs for reducing possible disasters/damage.Discussions on this point will follow in the next post.
Book Review Yoshida |
eEQP Index Start |
LinkedIn-1 |
LinkedIn-2 |
LinkedIn-3 |
LinkedIn-4 |
LinkedIn-5 |
EQP: Japan TRIZ Sympo |
jEQP 2024 Index |
EQP Index Page |
EQP First Parent page |
EQP Second Parent page |
Nakagawa Presentation (EPSJ 2023) |
EQP 2023 Index Page |
Last updated on Jul. 21, 2024. Access point: Editor: nakagawa@ogu.ac.jp
