TRIZ Paper: Japan TRIZ Symposium 2009 
Maturity Assessment through Contradictions Analysis
Federico Rotini (Università di Firenze, Italy)
| TRIZ Paper: Japan TRIZ Symposium 2009 |
|
| Network of Evolutionary Trends and Maturity Assessment through Contradictions Analysis |
|
| Niccolò Becattini, Gaetano Cascini (Politecnico di Milano, Italy), Federico Rotini (Università di Firenze, Italy) |
|
| The Fifth TRIZ Symposium in Japan, Held by Japan TRIZ Society on Sept. 10-12, 2009 at National Women's Education Center, Ranzan-machi, Hiki-gun, Saitama, Japan | |
| Introduction by Toru Nakagawa (Osaka Gakuin Univ.), Nov. 22, 2009 | |
| [Posted on Jul. 11, 2010] |
For going back to Japanese pages, press buttons.
Editor's Note (Toru Nakagawa, Jun. 30, 2010)
This is one of the two nice papers presented by the Italian group last year at the 5th TRIZ Symposium in Japan. In my "Personal Report of Japan TRIZ Symposium 2009"
, I wrote at the start of reviewing contributed papers:
The topic of Technology Forecasting is closely related to the two Keynote Lectures by Boris Zlotin
The paper by Gaetano Cascini et al. is posted on this page, while the other written by Davide Russo et al
Presentation slides in PDF
and presentation slides in Japanese translation by Atsushi Inoue (Toshiba) and Toru Nakagawa (OGU) in PDF
. Nakagawa's introduction to this paper was extracted from his "Personal Report of Japan TRIZ Symposium 2009"
[1] Abstract
Network of Evolutionary Trends and
Maturity Assessment through Contradictions AnalysisNiccolò Becattini, Gaetano Cascini (Politecnico di Milano, Italy),
Federico Rotini (Università di Firenze, Italy)Abstract
TRIZ literature presents several papers and even books claiming the efficiency of Altshuller’s Laws of Engineering System Evolution as a means for producing technology forecasts. Nevertheless, all the instruments and the procedures proposed so far suffer from poor repeatability, while the increasing adoption of innovation as the key factor for being competitive requires reliable and repeatable methods and tools for the analysis of emerging technologies and their potential impact.
Moreover, a paradoxical dichotomy characterizes most of TRIZ publications: most of them focused on problem solving, take into account the concept of contradictions, but practically neglect any relationship with the LESE. Vice versa, evolutionary analyses and “technology forecasting” applications are just based on the directions inspired by the LESE and/or by a few trends (e.g. the Inventive Standards of Class 2 and 3), but the notion of contradiction is missing.
The present paper introduces a contribution in this context through a study about the correlations existing between the evolution of contradictions and the Law of Ideality increase. A maturity index based on such correlation is defined. The full paper details the proposed algorithm for contradiction classification and an extended case study in the field of production of tablets in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector.
[2] Presentation Slides in PDF
Presentation Slides in English in PDF
Presentation Slides in Japanese in PDF
[3] Introduction to the Presentation (by Nakagawa)
Excerpt from:
Personal Report of The Fifth TRIZ Symposium in Japan, 2009, Part B
by Toru Nakagawa (Osaka Gakuin University), Nov. 22, 2009
Posted on Nov. 23, 2009 in "TRIZ Home Page in Japan"
Gaetano Cascini, Niccolo Becatini (Politecnico di Milano, Italy), Federico Rotini (Universita degli Studi di Firenze, Italy) [E12 O-14] gave a nice Oral presentation with the title of "Network of Evolutionary Trends and Maturity Assessment through Contradictions Analysis". Here I will quote the Authors' Abstract first:
TRIZ literature presents several papers and even books claiming the efficiency of Altshuller’s Laws of Engineering System Evolution as a means for producing technology forecasts. Nevertheless, all the instruments and the procedures proposed so far suffer from poor repeatability, while the increasing adoption of innovation as the key factor for being competitive requires reliable and repeatable methods and tools for the analysis of emerging technologies and their potential impact.
Moreover, a paradoxical dichotomy characterizes most of TRIZ publications: most of them focused on problem solving, take into account the concept of contradictions, but practically neglect any relationship with the LESE. Vice versa, evolutionary analyses and “technology forecasting” applications are just based on the directions inspired by the LESE and/or by a few trends (e.g. the Inventive Standards of Class 2 and 3), but the notion of contradiction is missing.
The present paper introduces a contribution in this context through a study about the correlations existing between the evolution of contradictions and the Law of Ideality increase. A maturity index based on such correlation is defined. The full paper details the proposed algorithm for contradiction classification and an extended case study in the field of production of tablets in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector.
Reflecting the Abstract, the Goal and outline of the presentation are shown in the slide (right). The fist half of the presentation concerns with the building of a network of scenarios (or a Network of Evolutionary Trends). This part is nice, but I will rather skip it because the Authors presented a more detailed paper at ETRIA TFC2008. I wrote its review in my Personal Report and posted it in this Web site
Thus the new part of the present paper is the latter half, i.e. to correlate the Contradictions and Evolutionary Stages.
For correlating the Contradictions with Evolutionary Stages, the Authors use the wave model by Yuri Salamatov. The growth of the degree of ideality can be compared with the consumption of resources. Characteristic patterns of changes in the Useful functions (UF), Costs (or Resource consumption) (C), and Harmful functions (HF) are shown in the graph of the evolutionary change of ideality of a system. Various parameters of UF, C, and HF are listed in the slide (right). The Authors discuss (though being skipped in this review) how to evaluate these parameters.
Then the Authors show how to identify various contradictions which form a complex network of contradictions. The Contradictions are advised to separate into a set of elementary contradictions (slide right).
The elementary contradictions can be classified according to the nature of the pair of Evaluation Parameters (slide below left). The abundance of the elementary contradictions according to these patterns are empirically found to have the tendency as shown in the slide (below-right). I.e., Contradictions of performance vs performance are predominant in the emerging stage of evolution and fade out in the later stages, whereas contradictions of resource vs resource increase from the emerging stage to the
The slide (right) shows the conclusions and future works. The Authors have already applied the present approach of building the Network of Evolutionary Trends (NET) to 4 case studies, and have found it effective to support company's management in selecting the most appropriate directions for investment. Repeatability or objectiveness of the approach is the main merit of the present method, the Authors claim. The Technology Maturity Assessment based on the nature of contradictions need further experiments, they suppose.
*** The Authors seem to have made steady progress in the research of building a 'repeatable' method for predicting the future of technical systems.
| Top of this page | Abstract | Slides in PDF |
Nakagawa's Introduction | Slides in Japanese, PDF |
Nakagawa's Personal Report of Japan TRIZ Symp. 2009 |
Japan TRIZ Symp. 2009 |
Japanese page |
Last updated on Jul. 11, 2010. Access point: Editor: nakagawa@ogu.ac.jp
